Prediction of Women’s Fertility Behavior in Tehran Province Based on Cultural Approach Applying Agent-based Modeling

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Demography Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. nasibeh.esmaeli@ut.ac.ir

2 Professor of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; and Visiting Fellow Professor, School of Demography, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, (Corresponding Author), mabbasi@ut.ac.ir

Abstract

Taking into account the reduction of fertility concurrent with attitudinal changes, the present paper examines and predicts the reproductive behavior of women in Tehran province utilizing agent-based modeling with a cultural approach. To this end, a set of scenarios including attitude changes toward abortion, the importance of religiosity, and the impact of the media are taken into account. Simulations have been performed in AnyLogic software, based on the data obtained from the 2017 Iran Fertility Transition Survey (IFTS). The results predict that the total fertility rate of women in Tehran province in 1408 will reach 1.06. These figures are predicted to reach 1.07 and 1.03, respectively, when the increase and decrease in the importance of women's religiosity are considered. If the scenario of increasing and decreasing the positive attitude towards reduction of abortion is evaluated, the total fertility rate will reach 1.02 and 1.07, respectively. Raising awareness and persuasion for childbearing in mass media is predicted to increase total fertility rate slightly to 1.16. However, given the increasing level of literacy and awareness of the society and target population, there is a need for scientific evidence-based planning and media discourse to convince elite and educated women to increase their fertility. This important message should always be considered by policymakers and planners.

Keywords

References

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